On Development of Prognostic Research in Russian Education from 2001 to 2025

Aim. To present the results of a review of dissertations defended in 2001–2025 in Russia in the field of educational forecasting, identifying thematic areas and gaps, as well as possible prospects for scientific developments.

Methodology. The research is based on a descriptive approach, which involves recording and systematizing data and analyzing the current situation. Content analysis for the quantitative measurement of dissertations and thematic blocks, classification method for the purpose of systematizing the dissertations themselves by relevant keywords to obtain a sample corresponding to the research objective, thematic analysis method for the purpose of identifying thematic blocks in the data array, and critical analysis method for identifying thematic gaps and potential prospects for further research were used as research methods. The source for the analysis was an array of dissertations in the field of predictive studies of educational development, which were defended between 2001 and 2025 in Russia according to the pedagogical codes of scientific specialties of the nomenclature of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian Federation. In total, the sample included 164 dissertations, of which 137 were Cand. Sci. theses, and 27 Dr. Sci. theses.

Results. The study revealed that a total of 136 theses were defended in the 2000s, 28 in the 2010s, and 0 in the first five years of 2020. The three most frequently occurring thematic blocks in dissertation research were forecasting as a skill (competence, ability, potential, skills), for example, for the development and implementation of projects, the prevention of deviant behavior, etc. (including among teachers), forecasting educational outcomes, learning success, or learning difficulties, a predictive model in the management of an educational organization (advanced development), monitoring based on forecasting and evaluation, often associated with strategic management, including in the region. The sample did not include dissertation studies devoted to the development of pedagogical phenomena, teaching aids, the transformation of professions and models of professional activity, or the impact of technology on education and training. These topics can form the basis for further research.

Research implications. The scientific novelty of the research lies in its identification of thematic clusters of dissertations defended in 2001–2025 in the field of educational prognostics and the identification of thematic gaps. At a theoretical level, the study’s results expand our understanding of the current state of educational prognostics in the Russian scientific community, contributing to prognostic theory and the history of its development. Its practical significance lies in its formulation of recommendations for future research.

Conclusions. Prognostic research on the future development of education in the form of dissertations is currently virtually nonexistent. Forecasting is increasingly becoming a method used in conjunction with other methods in other fields (economics, sociology). Foresight practices, which became popular in the 2010s, will undoubtedly remain in demand, as they, by evolving into more scalable and accessible formats for a wider audience, make the development of educational forecasting research as a field possible and influence educational policy.

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